California
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CALIFORNIA
Biden – 11.1m (63.5%)
Trump – 6.0m (34.3%)
First takeaway on CA – although CA trended D in reg by 2%, Trump pushed it slightly right even in certified totals. This is only done with winning low-propensity voters, registered Ds, indies, especially working class Hispanics in So. CA.
Trump gained 1.52mm votes, 580k more than record GOP gain, but Ds have DOUBLED vote total since 2000, with Biden nearly 3mm over Obama ’08.
These are worst for excess Biden votes as predicted by Party ID, Pop. Growth, and Reg.
Alameda – 50k
Contra Costa – 50k
Fresno – 30k
Kern – 20k
L.A. – 500k
Orange – 100k
Riverside – 80k
San Bernardino – 40k
San Diego – 80k
Santa Clara – 60k
Ventura – 25k
Proportionally, L.A., Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego absolutely dwarf other counties for new reg voters. Are these phantom factories? Est. 1.346mm excess Biden votes, would put state at 23.3% margin if only excess votes considered. I believe CA to be much tighter.