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Biden – 2,369,612 (57.97%)
Trump – 1,584,651 (38.77%)


Red – Ugly
Yellow – Suspect
Green – Clean


WA has violent large city generating large Trump vote gains in suburbs and heavy white working class coalition shifts around state in fishing and timber industries. How did Trump gain 363k votes and get knocked back another 4% after 08-12-16 GOP nominees couldn’t get out of 1.2mm vote range?


Based on predictive Trends, est. 228k excess Biden votes before counting King Co., led by:
Clark – 30k
Pierce – 30k
Snohomish – 40k
Spokane – 25k
Thurston – 10k
Whatcom – 10k


WA GOP and Dems bled a lot to third party in 2016 so I’ve been generous to Biden total for 2020 and am likely too favorable to him. For King Co., estimating 105k excess from just available trends, not accounting for past “engineering” of county. If correct, est. 333k excess statewide votes and accurate Biden margin to be +12.0%, only considering excess votes.


Best audit targets are Clark, Spokane, Yakima, Chelan, and Pierce.