Biden – 1,717,077 (52.40%)
Trump – 1,484,065 (45.28)%
Trump is up 161k votes from 2016 as the state nearly dropped into the GOP column, but Biden is up 349k after two consecutive elections of fewer votes, including Clinton down 178k from Obama’s re-election. They will gain votes in 2020 thanks to third parties returning.
Red – High Fraud
Yellow – Moderate/Suspect Fraud
Green – Low/No Fraud
Fair share of green counties here, but there are a ton of rural, tiny counties with little play in numbers. Hennepin is a cesspool, and Ramsey a smaller version. Biden is 2x Obama’s high turnout era record gain, plus another 30k. I’ve afforded him Obama ’08 gain plus 25%, same as Ramsey, almost certainly high.
if Biden is 228k heavy, Trump would be within 5k votes, at 0.1% margin. I suspect I’m way light on Hennepin, and believe this was a 1-3 point Trump state. Ellison told you at 4 PM on 11/3 he didn’t have the votes.